Market Predictions and Realities: A Look at the First Three Quarters

Jeff Lang October 20, 2023

Here’s what buyers and sellers need to know in our housing market.

Today, I want to delve into the market's performance during the first three quarters of this year, starting with a national overview and gradually narrowing it down to the local scene. But before we dive into the data, I'd like to emphasize something I've observed over the years: the accuracy of trends and predictions made by experts, especially amid and since the pandemic, has been consistently off the mark. So, my second point is that it's crucial to draw your own conclusions when assessing information, whether it's from the news or even from me.

Now, let's look at the bigger picture. Since 2000, housing appreciation in the Western region has outshone all others in the country, with a remarkable 206% increase. This equates to two and a half times the rate of inflation, underscoring housing as a fantastic long-term investment.

On a national scale, the number of home sales has dipped by 25% compared to last year, which itself was down 20% from the year before. The higher interest rates have deterred many homeowners from parting with their low-rate mortgages and selling their properties. As of yesterday, interest rates are averaging 7.62%, a quarter-point decrease in just a week due to global geopolitical events. However, in the past 18 months, rates have doubled. To provide some context, these current rates align closely with the long-term average.

"Demand outweighs supply."

Now, shifting our focus to local markets, specific trends have emerged. In major metropolitan areas like San Jose and Santa Clara, median prices have experienced a 5.3% decrease. In San Francisco, Oakland, and Hayward, prices are down by 11.3% from their peak in Q2. An interesting observation has been the trend of people moving away from the Bay Area, particularly to places like Austin, Texas. However, it's worth noting that the median price in Austin has seen a 19.1% drop.

Despite these fluctuations, there are local areas where home prices remain stable or even show slight increases due to limited inventory. In Burlingame, for instance, the median single-family price has risen from $2.7 million in Q1 to $2.8 million, with homes often selling at the list price. San Carlos has also seen Q3 median prices rise from $2.2 million in Q1 to $2.4 million, frequently selling for 3% above the list price. In Pacifica, homes are selling at 104% of the list price, with a median price of $1.26 million.

Key takeaways: Prices in our local market are stable or slightly on the rise due to limited inventory. The demand from buyers consistently outweighs the supply of available properties, leading to bidding wars and competitive offers, particularly for well-priced and professionally marketed properties. 

If you have questions about this topic or anything else, please call or email me. I am always willing to help!

Jeff Lang

Jeff Lang


About The Author

Jeff Lang's career in real estate is a testament to his strategic, growth-oriented mindset and his dedication to helping clients navigate the unique landscapes of San Mateo County. With his focus on areas from Burlingame to San Carlos and Pacifica since 2011, Jeff has become an invaluable asset to those seeking the perfect balance of urban and suburban life. His appreciation for the county's temperate weather and easy access to a plethora of outdoor activities resonates deeply with his clientele, who seek both the vibrancy of urban living and the tranquility of suburban spaces.

Beginning his journey in commercial real estate in San Francisco in 1997 and later transitioning to residential real estate in La Jolla, Jeff has honed a deep understanding of the industry. Known for his professional, caring, and patient approach, he brings a results-oriented and responsive attitude to every transaction. Jeff's unique strength lies in his ability to outperform competitors by leveraging his extensive experience and education.

Jeff leverages his education having received his JD and an MBA, alongside numerous real estate certifications including Master Certified Negotiations Expert and Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist, enabling him to devise winning strategies for each transaction. His approach not only ensures success but also puts his clients at ease, earning their trust and loyalty.

Outside of real estate, Jeff's life is as dynamic and multifaceted as his professional pursuits. His hobbies range from trail running and hiking with his dog to playing golf, tennis, and pickleball, and he's an enthusiastic Peloton user. A proud graduate of law school at the age of 42 and an Ironman triathlon finisher, Jeff's achievements speak to his determination and commitment. These qualities, combined with his professional expertise, make him an exceptional choice for buyers, sellers, and investors—especially in the $2m+ range—who are looking for more than just a transaction but a partnership with a seasoned expert who will turn them into raving fans.

In his over two decades in real estate, Jeff is most proud of partnering with his clients to build the life of their dreams. It helps that Jeff is a negotiations shark, having competed nationally as president of the negotiations team in law school and as a Master Certified Negotiation Expert (MCNE). His MBA and JD also give him and his clients a competitive advantage in every transaction, leading to his listings selling for 4.8% more than the average San Mateo County agent and offers getting accepted 6x more frequently.

If you are looking for an agent who will take on your goal as their own and be relentless in their pursuit of achieving that goal, then you want Jeff as your partner. He’s completed five marathons, including one in Antarctica, and dozens of triathlons, including an Ironman. His passion for taking on a challenge and grinding away to craft creative solutions is unparalleled. Jeff has a natural talent for putting things in perspective, keeping your eye on the prize, and clarifying the strategy to provide opportunities for success in your transaction.

A few of Jeff’s other certifications include NAR’s ePro for advanced digital marketing and NAR’s Green Designations for sustainability in real estate, Pricing Strategy Advisor (PSA) certification, Keller Williams’ BOLD program, and Tony Robbins’ Mastery University. He is also a member of the Institute for Luxury Marketing. These help him and his clients outpace the competition by selling at a higher price and getting offers accepted more often. This track record and partnership continue to provide repeat and referral business, the basis for his growing business.

Reach out to Jeff for a free consultation to discuss your real estate goals. He would be happy to make your goals his and utilize his extensive experience to make it happen.


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